As part of the CST courses I run, I have developed a collapse index to help people understand different categories of collapse and where on the scale of severity the particular event or events they are preparing for sits.
There are five basic categories of collapse identified.
The first relates to a collapse confined to a region. The second level relates to short term collapses or partial collapses of a global scale. The third relates to a technological collapse. The forth relates to food systems decline. The fifth relates to a combination of rapid and simultaneous social, food and technological collapse.
In the info graphic I also include references to emergencies and disasters, which are collapse like events but on the personal, community or regional scale AND where short term help and medium to long term recovery is available and forthcoming.
The index focuses on three drivers of collapse: social system failure, technological system failure and ecological system decline. Calculation of severity assumes food productions is more important for survival then technological systems and both are more important than social systems.
In our CST courses we use this index to put the type of events we are preparing for in a boarder framework. We then discuss the general preparation needed to deal with each level of collapse. Once people see which category they have prepared for they can see in broad terms what other events their preparation covers.
If you find the index useful please feel free to use and reference the index.
THE WHITEHEAD COLLAPSE INDEX
LEVEL 1 – REGIONAL COLLAPSE
Level 1 collapses are confined to geographic or political regions. Effects of similar events vary depending on internal and external resources available to the region to respond to the event. In many cases regional events are simply disasters as the region, country or world responds effectively providing immediate support and medium and long term recovery efforts. Where support is not forthcoming events can result regional collapses
Causes of regional collapse could include:
LEVEL 2 – GLOBAL SOCIAL DISRUPTION
Some preppers may be surprised that the particular event they are preparing for is only a level 2 event, however these collapse events are relatively short term and are recoverable once the event has passed. I have divided this level of event up into two subcategories.
Level 2A: Global Systems Failure
Global social systems failures are “soft” collapse events, in that though potentially having severe to extreme consequences during the event they are inherently recoverable as the both the physical technology and ecology we rely are largely unaffected.
For example a liquid fuel shortage may require extreme rationing and effect all parts of our economy but we can replace our dependency on oil based transport given enough time with anything from electric cars and trucks to a massively expanded electric light and heavy rail system, to limited bio-fuels or as a worst case massive coal to oil projects or a combination of.
Likewise our global economic system is just as series of human made systems invented in our heads, recorded electronically or on paper and maintain by human and electronic systems. If it fails can be rebuild it and even redesigned a new system to avoid future collapses.
Included in this subcategory are events that could cause systems disruption due to a minor population collapse from for example a global viral pandemic that lasts one or two years.
Causes of a level 2A collapse could include:
Level 2B: Global Population Collapse
This is the worst case version of a level two collapse. In this scenario there would be an unprecedented global die off caused by some as yet to be seen super lethal virus or if we look to the realm of fantasy fiction, a fast zombie outbreak.
In this case most systems will fail simply because the people are not there to maintain them or press buttons and as most of our systems are interlinked we see failure spread and multiply once one part fails.
We will also see significant destruction due to people not being around to deal with emergencies such as putting out fires. Potentially we could see large parts of rural and urban areas destroyed as fires jump from building to building or as bush fires burn out of control.
Given time even these events can be recovered from as the population rebuilds because the ecology is still intact and surviving technical systems still work or can be restarted.
Causes of a level 2B collapse could include:
LEVEL 3 – TECHNOLOGICAL FAILURE
A level three collapse occurs when the technology we rely on to maintains our key systems such as food growing and distribution, finance and commerce, manufacturing, sewage, communication etc etc fail. Natural ecological processes are unaffected or only marginally effected. The impacts of a global technological collapse are likely to be severe as food production and distribution systems fail. Isolated areas of the globe which produce a surplus of food using primitive technologies may be relatively unaffected while the rest of the world is thrown into chaos as populations fight to control limited food supplies and production.
Causes of a level 3 collapse could include:
LEVEL 4 – ECOLOGICAL FAILURE
Fundamental to our survival is our ability to grow food. If our food systems failed there would be an immediate global die of massive proportions. We are currently facing a series of potential food related collapse scenarios. Most are gradual food system declines which still offer us the hope of addressing these events before they progress to far.
Ecological failure can be slow or fast and thus this level is divided in two sub categories 4S “slow build” and 4F “fast”.
Causes of a level 4S collapse could include:
LEVEL 5 – GLOBAL APOCALYPSE
A level 5 collapse involves a simultaneous and immediate global social, technical and ecological systems collapse. There is currently only one* conceivable event that can cause this scenario, global nuclear war, which with a combines the destruction of most electrical systems via multiple EMP attacks, massive destruction of life and infrastructure through nuclear detonation above cities and military targets, and ecological failure over much of the globe due to global dimming.
Causes of a level 5 collapse includes:
There are five basic categories of collapse identified.
- Regional Collapse
- Global Disruption
- Global Technological Failure
- Global Ecological Failure
- Global Apocalypse
The first relates to a collapse confined to a region. The second level relates to short term collapses or partial collapses of a global scale. The third relates to a technological collapse. The forth relates to food systems decline. The fifth relates to a combination of rapid and simultaneous social, food and technological collapse.
In the info graphic I also include references to emergencies and disasters, which are collapse like events but on the personal, community or regional scale AND where short term help and medium to long term recovery is available and forthcoming.
The index focuses on three drivers of collapse: social system failure, technological system failure and ecological system decline. Calculation of severity assumes food productions is more important for survival then technological systems and both are more important than social systems.
In our CST courses we use this index to put the type of events we are preparing for in a boarder framework. We then discuss the general preparation needed to deal with each level of collapse. Once people see which category they have prepared for they can see in broad terms what other events their preparation covers.
If you find the index useful please feel free to use and reference the index.
THE WHITEHEAD COLLAPSE INDEX
LEVEL 1 – REGIONAL COLLAPSE
Level 1 collapses are confined to geographic or political regions. Effects of similar events vary depending on internal and external resources available to the region to respond to the event. In many cases regional events are simply disasters as the region, country or world responds effectively providing immediate support and medium and long term recovery efforts. Where support is not forthcoming events can result regional collapses
Causes of regional collapse could include:
- war or revolution
- extreme drought
- extreme weather
- regimes imposing starvation, ethnic persecution or genocide
- regional scale nuclear EMP attack
LEVEL 2 – GLOBAL SOCIAL DISRUPTION
Some preppers may be surprised that the particular event they are preparing for is only a level 2 event, however these collapse events are relatively short term and are recoverable once the event has passed. I have divided this level of event up into two subcategories.
Level 2A: Global Systems Failure
Global social systems failures are “soft” collapse events, in that though potentially having severe to extreme consequences during the event they are inherently recoverable as the both the physical technology and ecology we rely are largely unaffected.
For example a liquid fuel shortage may require extreme rationing and effect all parts of our economy but we can replace our dependency on oil based transport given enough time with anything from electric cars and trucks to a massively expanded electric light and heavy rail system, to limited bio-fuels or as a worst case massive coal to oil projects or a combination of.
Likewise our global economic system is just as series of human made systems invented in our heads, recorded electronically or on paper and maintain by human and electronic systems. If it fails can be rebuild it and even redesigned a new system to avoid future collapses.
Included in this subcategory are events that could cause systems disruption due to a minor population collapse from for example a global viral pandemic that lasts one or two years.
Causes of a level 2A collapse could include:
- economic collapse
- global viral pandemic
- liquid fuel shortage
- slow zombies
Level 2B: Global Population Collapse
This is the worst case version of a level two collapse. In this scenario there would be an unprecedented global die off caused by some as yet to be seen super lethal virus or if we look to the realm of fantasy fiction, a fast zombie outbreak.
In this case most systems will fail simply because the people are not there to maintain them or press buttons and as most of our systems are interlinked we see failure spread and multiply once one part fails.
We will also see significant destruction due to people not being around to deal with emergencies such as putting out fires. Potentially we could see large parts of rural and urban areas destroyed as fires jump from building to building or as bush fires burn out of control.
Given time even these events can be recovered from as the population rebuilds because the ecology is still intact and surviving technical systems still work or can be restarted.
Causes of a level 2B collapse could include:
- super lethal viral pandemic
- fast zombies
LEVEL 3 – TECHNOLOGICAL FAILURE
A level three collapse occurs when the technology we rely on to maintains our key systems such as food growing and distribution, finance and commerce, manufacturing, sewage, communication etc etc fail. Natural ecological processes are unaffected or only marginally effected. The impacts of a global technological collapse are likely to be severe as food production and distribution systems fail. Isolated areas of the globe which produce a surplus of food using primitive technologies may be relatively unaffected while the rest of the world is thrown into chaos as populations fight to control limited food supplies and production.
Causes of a level 3 collapse could include:
- solar flare
- limited nuclear war with wide spread use of EMP attacks
LEVEL 4 – ECOLOGICAL FAILURE
Fundamental to our survival is our ability to grow food. If our food systems failed there would be an immediate global die of massive proportions. We are currently facing a series of potential food related collapse scenarios. Most are gradual food system declines which still offer us the hope of addressing these events before they progress to far.
Ecological failure can be slow or fast and thus this level is divided in two sub categories 4S “slow build” and 4F “fast”.
Causes of a level 4S collapse could include:
- global warming
- beemageddon
- nutrient shortages
- hypothetical food systems failure due to genetic engineering or other biological or toxic element (aka “Interstellar” plot)
- super volcano
LEVEL 5 – GLOBAL APOCALYPSE
A level 5 collapse involves a simultaneous and immediate global social, technical and ecological systems collapse. There is currently only one* conceivable event that can cause this scenario, global nuclear war, which with a combines the destruction of most electrical systems via multiple EMP attacks, massive destruction of life and infrastructure through nuclear detonation above cities and military targets, and ecological failure over much of the globe due to global dimming.
Causes of a level 5 collapse includes:
- global nuclear war
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